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Hoffman, Braedyn

Braedyn

Hoffman

Presentation: 2026 ND EPSCoR Annual conference 

October 20, 2026, Minot, North Dakota

Effects of Limited Elemental Combinations on Likelihood Ratios. An Application in Forensic Glass Evidence Analysis

Braedyn

Hoffman

Undergraduate Student
University of North Dakota

Anuradha Akmeemana, Ph.D., Department of Criminal Justice, University of North Dakota

Session

Poster #36

Effects of Limited Elemental Combinations on Likelihood Ratios. An Application in Forensic Glass Evidence Analysis Braedyn Hoffman1, Anuradha Akmeemana, Ph.D.1 1Department of Criminal Justice, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, North Dakota, 58203 Forensic glass fragment analysis provides valuable associations between the known and unknown evidence. Glass fragments share similar physical characteristics and elemental composition, and elemental analysis can provide greater discrimination. Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) provides precise elemental concentrations of glass and is widely used in forensic glass analysis. Likelihood ratio calculations for glass evidence using elemental concentrations have been previously published. This study focuses on the effects on likelihood ratios using a limited number of element combinations. This study was conducted using the vehicle glass data already collected and published by Florida International University (FIU). The elemental concentrations of the glass fragments were measured using LA-ICP-MS in accordance with ASTM E2927. The likelihood ratios were calculated by the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) model and then calibrated by the Pool-Adjacent Violators (PAV). Previously published studies have used 15 elements (Li, Mg, Al, K, Ti, Mn, Fe, Rb, Sr, Zr, Ba, La, Ce, Nd, and Pb) to calculate likelihood ratios. But the current study uses only a limited number of elements, such as combinations of 2, 3, 4, and 5. The authors plan to expand the combinations of these elements in the future. The pilot study results showed that the choice of elements influenced the strength of the calculated likelihood ratios. Some reduced elemental combinations produced LRs comparable to those from the complete element profile, while others yielded lower evidential strength. This will help clarify how each element contributes to the evidential strength of forensic glass analysis.

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